Year 5 Revenue
$17.3M
Total projected
HW + SW + Service
Units Sold (Y5)
231
Annual units
YoY unit growth
Installed Base
419
Cumulative units
End of Year 5
ASP (Year 5)
$47K
Per unit
8% YoY decline
Gross Margin
31.2%
Year 5
vs 7.5% Year 2
Headcount
124
FTEs
From 36 Year 1
52% reduction in per-unit COGS from $67K to $32K with 25+ line items including yield loss, warranty, freight, and end effectors
Hardware margins improve from 7.5% to 31.2% - reflects true early-stage hardware economics before hitting scale
15% scrap/rework in Y1 ($8.7K/unit) dropping to 5% by Y5 ($1.5K/unit) - a critical hidden cost often missed in early models
Model includes battery/power, software licensing, assembly QA, warranty reserve, freight, end effectors, safety systems, and packaging
Inventory ramp for 231 units at $32K COGS = ~$7.4M inventory carrying cost, plus receivables pressure during hardware ramp
Y1 is pure burn ($11.5M OPEX, $0 revenue). Investment pacing vs. technical milestones requires clear phase gates.